Throughout his three-decade political career, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been written off countlessly. Yet, time and again, he has defied political epitaphs. Following the election where over 90% of ballots have been counted, opposition forces face an unprecedented opportunity to end his lengthy rule, though Israel's unpredictable political landscape leaves his ultimate fate hanging in the balance.
A Fractured Mandate and the Arab Coalition Factor
Although Netanyahu's Likud party remains the single largest party with 26 projected seats, his right-wing coalition stands at just 53 seats—well short of the 61 needed for a parliamentary majority. Conversely, the broad opposition spectrum commands roughly 67 seats on paper. However, this anti-Netanyahu block is deeply divided by ideological and national fractures.
To reach 61 seats, chief opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, whose party won 21 seats within a core Jewish bloc of 48 seats, depends on the crucial support of Arab parties—Ra'am and the Joint List—which together are projected to capture a record 19 seats. High turnout among Arab-Israeli voters is largely viewed as a direct backlash against Far-Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's provocative policies.
"We must do everything possible to avoid another round of elections. Party leaders need to enter discussions with an open mind."
— Isaac Herzog, President of Israel
Netanyahu's Survival Playbook
Netanyahu's immediate post-election strategy centers on delegitimizing Jewish-Arab political cooperation, aiming to fracture the opposition's fragile alliance. Likud leadership has already hurled allegations of election fraud and irregularities regarding Arab party vote shares, mirroring tactics seen in international political disputes.
Furthermore, opposition sources express serious concerns that Netanyahu could manufacture or leverage external security crises—including coordinated actions regarding Iran alongside U.S. President Donald Trump—to delay or disrupt coalition formation. Security insiders suggest plans for strikes against Iran remain developed and awaiting authorization, raising fears of escalated tensions designed to preserve executive control.
Double Envelopes and Potential Unity Pressure
The Central Elections Committee is finalizing the counting of over 430,000 "double-envelope" ballots—belonging to soldiers, diplomats, and hospital patients—which represent up to 10 crucial Knesset seats capable of shifting the final tally.
Once final results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will initiate consultations to mandate a candidate capable of building a 61-seat majority within 28 days. As caretaker prime minister, Netanyahu retains a natural tactical advantage; if Eisenkot fails to solidify his coalition, repeated political deadlock could trigger new elections, automatically extending Netanyahu's caretaker tenure for additional months.